Why do you have the Wild dropping so far in the standings from last year’s finish? It seems to me like they’d go up. Their offense is better than last year with Pominville in the lineup all season and the youngsters now with some experience, their defense improved or stayed the same, their goaltending is the same and their schedule should be a lot easier with a lot less travel.
On that note, what interests you guys in projecting Nashville to do so much better? Obviously Rinne and their coach gives them a chance every night, but that’s a big jump.
October 1, 2013 1:38 pm
I agree with this prediction but I really think that Fleury is going to go into full head-case mode this season – we will see though.
October 1, 2013 1:55 pm
Devils 2nd place? Yeah schnider will grow TONS under brodeur but how can a team that deprived of talent be the third best team in the NHL?
October 1, 2013 8:21 pm
Nice. I hope you can keep this updated in-season, ideally with the addition of team power rating system (schedule-neutral) which could be used to estimate win/loss odds for individual matchups. Thanks.
October 2, 2013 1:08 am
Why the big change from the draft kit projections
October 9, 2013 10:01 am
Avs in third to last place? Still believe it? Even before knowing they would go three and 0 I mean we added some great players got rid of our shit coach and Varly is a great goalie. I put them at 7-8th seed making the playoffs.
October 21, 2013 3:30 pm
@Kyle – Easy to respond now early on in the season. The Avs improved, and McKinnen is a huge reason why. The team will not keep this pace up though. They probably finish 3-5 in the division. It is a huge surprise to see them this good though. A nice one at that.
@LWLStaffer – Thanks for the response about Nashville. Interesting stat to pull up. I see what you guys are seeing there, but they didn’t address goal scoring, which is a bigger reason they haven’t been winning. I’m also still interested to hear the logic to why the Wild would drop THAT far down the standings.
May 18, 2014 11:41 pm
Wouldn’t have posted it if I didn’t believe it.
May 18, 2014 11:41 pm
One of the things that stands out for me with Nashville is Rinne’s PKSV% from last season. His was .818 which is dramatically lower than the league average. A goalie’s PKSV% is largely driven by luck and therefore subject to regression toward the mean. In Rinne’s case, his low PKSV% meant nearly an extra 10 goals against last season for Nashville – and that has a significant impact on your standings position. If Rinne performs near the league average at PKSV% this season, you’ll see an improved Nashville team.
Devils 2nd in the East? Really?
Why do you have the Wild dropping so far in the standings from last year’s finish? It seems to me like they’d go up. Their offense is better than last year with Pominville in the lineup all season and the youngsters now with some experience, their defense improved or stayed the same, their goaltending is the same and their schedule should be a lot easier with a lot less travel.
On that note, what interests you guys in projecting Nashville to do so much better? Obviously Rinne and their coach gives them a chance every night, but that’s a big jump.
I agree with this prediction but I really think that Fleury is going to go into full head-case mode this season – we will see though.
Devils 2nd place? Yeah schnider will grow TONS under brodeur but how can a team that deprived of talent be the third best team in the NHL?
Nice. I hope you can keep this updated in-season, ideally with the addition of team power rating system (schedule-neutral) which could be used to estimate win/loss odds for individual matchups. Thanks.
Why the big change from the draft kit projections
Avs in third to last place? Still believe it? Even before knowing they would go three and 0 I mean we added some great players got rid of our shit coach and Varly is a great goalie. I put them at 7-8th seed making the playoffs.
@Kyle – Easy to respond now early on in the season. The Avs improved, and McKinnen is a huge reason why. The team will not keep this pace up though. They probably finish 3-5 in the division. It is a huge surprise to see them this good though. A nice one at that.
@LWLStaffer – Thanks for the response about Nashville. Interesting stat to pull up. I see what you guys are seeing there, but they didn’t address goal scoring, which is a bigger reason they haven’t been winning. I’m also still interested to hear the logic to why the Wild would drop THAT far down the standings.
Wouldn’t have posted it if I didn’t believe it.
One of the things that stands out for me with Nashville is Rinne’s PKSV% from last season. His was .818 which is dramatically lower than the league average. A goalie’s PKSV% is largely driven by luck and therefore subject to regression toward the mean. In Rinne’s case, his low PKSV% meant nearly an extra 10 goals against last season for Nashville – and that has a significant impact on your standings position. If Rinne performs near the league average at PKSV% this season, you’ll see an improved Nashville team.
Read more about PKSV% here: link
I think Fleury will perform at his typical level – which is a slightly above average goalie on a strong offense team.
I don’t see Schneider as needing to grow; I see him as a huge improvement over Brodeur (that is, the Brodeur of the last three years).
I believe earlier versions of our kit did not include updates for Brunner and Jagr in the Devils’ standings position.