Using Shooting Percentage to Guide Your Fantasy Hockey Decisions
Heading into tonight’s game, there have been 827 goals scored on 8,784 shots on goal in 152 NHL games. The shot totals for NHL teams, on average, are just under 300. According to this article by JaredL of Driving Play, shooting statistics are still strongly dominated by luck at this point in the season.
This time last season (measured in shots, not dates), we analyzed the shooting statistics of players who had taken at least 25 SOG. The end result was that we compiled a list of players from whom we expected a decrease in scoring. One month later, we re-examined this same list of players to find that 90% of those players experienced significant drops in scoring.
We will now look at all NHL players who have taken at least 25 SOG this season. We have compared their 2012-2013 SH% to their career SH%. We will use a simple metric which we’ll call the Overage which is basically a % difference between the two numbers: 100*(NOW_SH% – Career_SH%)/(Career_SH%). Any player with at least 25 SOG and an Overage greater than 50 will make the list. What are we expecting from the players on this list going forward? In general, as a player takes more SOG, his SH% should approach his career SH%. Players with high Overage values on our list are likely to experience a decrease in scoring as the season moves on. As a fantasy hockey manager (depending on your scoring settings), you can loosely interpret this Overage as a measure of a player’s current trade value.
On Wednesday, we’ll reach the 1/4 mark of the fantasy hockey season. If you’re looking to make a deal in your league, why not consider moving some of the players below while their value is still high?
|James van Riemsdyk||TOR||11||6||37||16.2||10.5||54.3|