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Thread: Fantasy Football - Math Exercise

  1. #1

    Fantasy Football - Math Exercise

    Below is the weekly production (in fantasy points) of two fantasy football teams in the same league.

    90 vs. 96
    69 vs. 50
    89 vs. 89
    81 vs. 81
    92 vs. 94
    80 vs. 85

    The totals and weekly averages:

    501 vs. 495
    83.5 vs. 82.5

    Now some information about the league:

    The average total fantasy points (to date) for the 12 teams is: 525 points
    The average weekly output (in fantasy points) for the 12 teams is: 87.5

    For each team above (call them Team A - on the left, and team B - on the right), guess their W-L-T record in this league.

  2. #2
    1st Liner Rocket's Avatar
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    If I had to guess

    Team A - 4-2
    Team B - 1-5
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    Keepers - J. Toews (C), G. Landeskog (LW), C. Giroux (C, RW), E. Karlsson (D), A. Niemi (G)

  3. #3
    4th Liner UK Rob's Avatar
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    I would hazard a guess at both teams being 3-2-1
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    C - Kopitar, MacKinnon (RW), Oshie (RW), Henrique, S. Koivu
    LW - Landeskog, Hudler (RW), Umberger, Tatar (C)
    RW - Wheeler, Read
    D - Pietrangelo, Timonen, Shattenkirk, Franson, Faulk, Schultz
    G - Niemi, Halak, Elliott
    IR - Fasth, Tanguay

  4. #4
    Team A: 1-5-0 (.167%)

    Team B: 3-3-0 (.500%)

  5. #5
    1st Liner Rocket's Avatar
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    Thats just pure luck of opponents.
    Twitter: @Rocketman_33

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    Current Record

    Finished 2nd


    LWL FHL Dynasty H2H Pts League- Dy-Nasty - Keep 17
    Finished 9th

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    ESPN 12 Team H2H Pts League- Keep 5
    - Reg Season Record 22-0 - Finished 2nd

    Keepers - J. Toews (C), G. Landeskog (LW), C. Giroux (C, RW), E. Karlsson (D), A. Niemi (G)

  6. #6
    4th Liner UK Rob's Avatar
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    And that just goes to show the difference between H2H and rotisserie.

    I feel sorry for Team A but both teams are performing well below average anyway so any record of level or better would be very lucky (I'm looking at you, Team B).
    Claude's Golf Finger - LWL Phoenix League

    C - Kopitar, MacKinnon (RW), Oshie (RW), Henrique, S. Koivu
    LW - Landeskog, Hudler (RW), Umberger, Tatar (C)
    RW - Wheeler, Read
    D - Pietrangelo, Timonen, Shattenkirk, Franson, Faulk, Schultz
    G - Niemi, Halak, Elliott
    IR - Fasth, Tanguay

  7. #7
    2nd Liner Tim's Avatar
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    That's pretty unfortunate for Team A. There's more luck involved in H2H leagues but I like them much more. I don't know, I guess I just lose some interest in rotisserie leagues.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by UK Rob View Post
    And that just goes to show the difference between H2H and rotisserie.

    I feel sorry for Team A but both teams are performing well below average anyway so any record of level or better would be very lucky (I'm looking at you, Team B).
    Yeah, if I were to answer my own question, I would guessed either 3-3-0 or, more likely, 2-4-0. These teams are ranked 6th and 7th in total points in a 12-team league (so just below average).

    The important part for me wasn't their individual records, but the fact that two teams that are nearly identical (on both a total and weekly level) have such dissimilar records. I plan on diving into this more (I have seven years of data on this type of stuff), but I won't be surprised to learn that H-2-H leagues are largely driven by luck. To be clear, I'm not saying there aren't good/bad managers; rather, I'm saying that teams with very similar talent (as noted by fantasy points) can have drastically different records for no reason other than luck of the schedule.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike View Post
    Yeah, if I were to answer my own question, I would guessed either 3-3-0 or, more likely, 2-4-0. These teams are ranked 6th and 7th in total points in a 12-team league (so just below average).

    The important part for me wasn't their individual records, but the fact that two teams that are nearly identical (on both a total and weekly level) have such dissimilar records. I plan on diving into this more (I have seven years of data on this type of stuff), but I won't be surprised to learn that H-2-H leagues are largely driven by luck. To be clear, I'm not saying there aren't good/bad managers; rather, I'm saying that teams with very similar talent (as noted by fantasy points) can have drastically different records for no reason other than luck of the schedule.
    this will not be too hard to assess and can be even more comparable in category leagues. you might find two teams with identical goals or pims over 6 or 8 weeks and very different records on the category. but i wouldn't go too crazy on the luck factor since i bet that having more overall in a stat will correlate heavily with winning the stat . i also believe the more frequent the occurrence of the stat, the higher the correlation will be. i think stats like hits and blockage and fow will be far more consistent than shp. or even goals

    also... a win in a category, particularly a close win can be influenced a lot by a managers roster management that week in maximizing starts by the right skaters or making an astute pickup. or a managers domination in other categories allows him to focus on the close categories etc etc

    while there is luck, there are lots.of other ways a win loss record may not match up with the overall season total in a stat
    Last edited by flubber; 10-30-2012 at 04:08 PM.
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  10. #10
    1st Liner Rocket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flubber View Post
    also... a win in a category, particularly a close win can be influenced a lot by a managers roster management that week in maximizing starts by the right skaters or making an astute pickup. or a managers domination in other categories allows him to focus on the. lose categories etc etc

    while there is luck, there are lots.of other ways a win loss record may not much up with the overall season total in a stat
    If there are bench players. I have been in leagues without them before when it is just luck.
    Twitter: @Rocketman_33

    LWL FHL Keeper - The Untouchables - Keep 5
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SO


    Finished 3rd - Unknown Keepers


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    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SO
    Current Record

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    LWL FHL Dynasty H2H Pts League- Dy-Nasty - Keep 17
    Finished 9th

    Prospects - E. Kuznetsov, G. Reinhart, A. Vasilevsky, J. Drouin, J. Morin


    ESPN 12 Team H2H Pts League- Keep 5
    - Reg Season Record 22-0 - Finished 2nd

    Keepers - J. Toews (C), G. Landeskog (LW), C. Giroux (C, RW), E. Karlsson (D), A. Niemi (G)

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