Fantasy Football - Math Exercise

[Mike]

Below is the weekly production (in fantasy points) of two fantasy football teams in the same league.

90 vs. 96
69 vs. 50
89 vs. 89
81 vs. 81
92 vs. 94
80 vs. 85

The totals and weekly averages:

501 vs. 495
83.5 vs. 82.5

Now some information about the league:

The average total fantasy points (to date) for the 12 teams is: 525 points
The average weekly output (in fantasy points) for the 12 teams is: 87.5

For each team above (call them Team A - on the left, and team B - on the right), guess their W-L-T record in this league.

[Rocketman9]

If I had to guess

Team A - 4-2
Team B - 1-5

[UK Rob]

I would hazard a guess at both teams being 3-2-1

[Mike]

Team A: 1-5-0 (.167%)

Team B: 3-3-0 (.500%)

[Rocketman9]

Thats just pure luck of opponents.

[UK Rob]

And that just goes to show the difference between H2H and rotisserie.

I feel sorry for Team A but both teams are performing well below average anyway so any record of level or better would be very lucky (I'm looking at you, Team B).

[Tim]

That's pretty unfortunate for Team A. There's more luck involved in H2H leagues but I like them much more. I don't know, I guess I just lose some interest in rotisserie leagues.

[Mike]

And that just goes to show the difference between H2H and rotisserie.

I feel sorry for Team A but both teams are performing well below average anyway so any record of level or better would be very lucky (I'm looking at you, Team B).

Yeah, if I were to answer my own question, I would guessed either 3-3-0 or, more likely, 2-4-0. These teams are ranked 6th and 7th in total points in a 12-team league (so just below average).

The important part for me wasn't their individual records, but the fact that two teams that are nearly identical (on both a total and weekly level) have such dissimilar records. I plan on diving into this more (I have seven years of data on this type of stuff), but I won't be surprised to learn that H-2-H leagues are largely driven by luck. To be clear, I'm not saying there aren't good/bad managers; rather, I'm saying that teams with very similar talent (as noted by fantasy points) can have drastically different records for no reason other than luck of the schedule.

[flubber]

Yeah, if I were to answer my own question, I would guessed either 3-3-0 or, more likely, 2-4-0. These teams are ranked 6th and 7th in total points in a 12-team league (so just below average).

The important part for me wasn't their individual records, but the fact that two teams that are nearly identical (on both a total and weekly level) have such dissimilar records. I plan on diving into this more (I have seven years of data on this type of stuff), but I won't be surprised to learn that H-2-H leagues are largely driven by luck. To be clear, I'm not saying there aren't good/bad managers; rather, I'm saying that teams with very similar talent (as noted by fantasy points) can have drastically different records for no reason other than luck of the schedule.

this will not be too hard to assess and can be even more comparable in category leagues. you might find two teams with identical goals or pims over 6 or 8 weeks and very different records on the category. but i wouldn't go too crazy on the luck factor since i bet that having more overall in a stat will correlate heavily with winning the stat . i also believe the more frequent the occurrence of the stat, the higher the correlation will be. i think stats like hits and blockage and fow will be far more consistent than shp. or even goals

also... a win in a category, particularly a close win can be influenced a lot by a managers roster management that week in maximizing starts by the right skaters or making an astute pickup. or a managers domination in other categories allows him to focus on the close categories etc etc

while there is luck, there are lots.of other ways a win loss record may not match up with the overall season total in a stat

[Rocketman9]

also... a win in a category, particularly a close win can be influenced a lot by a managers roster management that week in maximizing starts by the right skaters or making an astute pickup. or a managers domination in other categories allows him to focus on the. lose categories etc etc

while there is luck, there are lots.of other ways a win loss record may not much up with the overall season total in a stat

If there are bench players. I have been in leagues without them before when it is just luck.