Stamkos for Howard

[Tim]

I hate getting into arguments, but this is why I don't think Howard is as good as people think he is.

2008-2009 (AHL with Grand Rapids) - 30.1 shots/gm, 2.54 G.A.A. with a .916 SV%
2009-2010 (Howard's breakout year), 29.4 shots/gm and Detroit was 9th in the NHL in shots against
2010-2011 (Down Year), 30.7 shots/gm and Detroit was 16th in the NHL in shots against
2011-2012 (obviously a great year), 27.1 shots/gm Detroit is 3rd in the NHL in shots against

You see that magical number of 30 shots being an issue. The less attention to detail his team pays to defense, the worse his numbers get.

I know quality of shots matters, but over the course of a full season, the sample size is large enough to lend credit to the systems of the team.

Howard's SV% against the other 7 current playoff teams in the West is .922, compared to his .924 overall, not a significant difference.

But against the elite teams (Vancouver, Chicago, San Jose), Howard is 3-4 with an .894 SV%. I don't include Nashville, St. Louis, Phoenix and Los Angeles in that elite category because they don't have the firepower the others do (none of those 4 teams are top-10 in team scoring, and Los Angeles/St. Louis are both in the bottom third). San Jose and Vancouver are both in the top-10 in goals for/game and goals against/game (and Chicago might be if their goalies didn't suck).

There's a reason LA allows 2.07 goals/game, and Detroit allows 2.35, despite LA giving up an extra shot and a half per game. Superior goaltending.

I'm an NHL fan, but not a common one. I watch two games every night, and I've watched several Detroit games this year. Yes Howard is good, but he's not in the Rinne/Quick/Thomas conversation by any stretch, which would be the only goaltenders that could possibly justify trading Stamkos

What does shots per game really have to do with it? Also how does a full season affect the overall quality of shots?
It's not like the quality of shots a team gives up is going to even itself out over a full season. A team that doesn't play good defense, Columbus for example, is going to consistently give up high quality shots to other teams. I don't deny at all that goalies like Rinne, Quick, and Lundqvist are better than Howard at this point. I just think the team especially the defense gets way too much credit. I honestly think that our defense isn't much better, if at all, than average in the nhl. As I said in my original post I wouldn't trade Stamkos for Howard either.

[SlimCliffy]

What I meant by the sample size was that over the course of a full season, two teams similar in styles (Rangers and St. Louis) will likely have the scoring chances even out. I would lump Detroit into that category as well (top-5 both in shots against and goals against). The Rangers are 9th in shots against, but are 2nd in goals against. St. Louis is 1st both in shots against and goals against (no surprise). Detroit is 3rd in shots against, yet 5th in goals against. That shows you the disparity in goaltending. St. Louis is playing great defence, and the goals against shows it. The Rangers are playing very good defence, and it's landed them just behind St. Louis in goals against because of Lundqvist. Detroit allows the 3rd fewest shots, yet is the only 1 of these three teams to see their relative ranking decline when looking at shots and goals. This tells you that they are supporting their goaltender more than their goaltender is supporting them.

[Tim]

What I meant by the sample size was that over the course of a full season, two teams similar in styles (Rangers and St. Louis) will likely have the scoring chances even out. I would lump Detroit into that category as well (top-5 both in shots against and goals against). The Rangers are 9th in shots against, but are 2nd in goals against. St. Louis is 1st both in shots against and goals against (no surprise). Detroit is 3rd in shots against, yet 5th in goals against. That shows you the disparity in goaltending. St. Louis is playing great defence, and the goals against shows it. The Rangers are playing very good defence, and it's landed them just behind St. Louis in goals against because of Lundqvist. Detroit allows the 3rd fewest shots, yet is the only 1 of these three teams to see their relative ranking decline when looking at shots and goals. This tells you that they are supporting their goaltender more than their goaltender is supporting them.

No offense but that is a pretty awful way to rank defenses. The wings for example are a very puck possession type of team meaning that they love to have the puck at all times. The reason we give up some of the least amounts of shots is because we have the puck more often than not. Having the puck more obviously leads to less time for ur opponent to have the puck which normally means less shots. Detroits game style is to play extremely well for a couple of minutes with the puck and then give up a breakaway or great chance to the other team. Almost every game I watch I see this. That includes their past win over Dallas. The final score was 3-1 but the game could've easily been 6-4 if both goalies weren't playing so well.

[NightParade]

@SlimCliffy - This is case by case basis. In this instance the case is Howard. Whether or not this guy picks up Howard certainly has nothing to do with whether or not Burrows is with the Sedins, on the third line, or joins the NBA. Vrbata for Kopitar is also a moot point as the title of the thread is Stamkos for Howard. Instead of arguing about semantics and syntax lets try and give out some trade advice here.

In this case getting Howard for Stamkos doesn't seem like a bad move to me, and I'd also argue that Howard is not likely to be demoted to the third of fourth line.

[MastaN8]

^ Thanks, Trade is still open... I really don't need another LW (Filpulla) as I currently have 4 and only 2 RW. I am going to counter for one of his RW; Seguin has pretty close stats to Filpulla. He has made other offers with others now so if he doesn't want to do this; no loss for me. What do you guys think?

[SlimCliffy]

Here fellas: http://tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=387491

Also read: http://tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=387724 you can just skip to the section about joey macdonald.