Strength of Schedule vs. Hot/Cold Streaks

[jomo666]

Greetings LWL'ers!

I have reached the finals in my league, and as I look through my roster to clean up any loose ends, I wondered: In regards to NHL teams going down the stretch, how do you guys feel about players on hot streaks with medium strength of schedules vs. consistently talented players with tough strength of schedules?

Here's an example (albeit only one of many possible scenarios I'm considering):

Alexander Radulov has certainly stepped up, and has contributed 3 points in 3 games for the Preds. However, they have a pretty difficult schedule coming up these next two weeks (STL, DET, CHI, MIN, DAL, COL). With the exception of Minnesota (who still is pretty defensively stingy) this is a pretty tough way to close out the season, despite being an obviously talented player.

On the other hand, Marcus Foligno is an unproven rookie on a TEAR with the Sabres. He's on a line with Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford, and I know for a fact that he will not be leaving this position on a hot line through the end of the season, barring a total meltdown. The Sabres play WSH, PIT, TOR (twice), PHI, BOS. While this is not an easy schedule, they do get Toronto twice, and have been playing like world-beaters lately.

Either would be replacing Adam Henrique, who's pretty much gone cold. Again, this is only one example (and probably the most extreme case), because at any other point in the season, the question of Radulov vs. M. Foligno would be an absolute no-brainer in favor of Radulov.

Other players available that fit the mold of this post are: Havlat, Cooke, McGinn, Malone. Also worth mentioning is the guy I'm playing pretty much tied my first round score, and both of us destroyed our round 1 opponents. This will be a VERY tight matchup.

Do you put more stock in raw talent or streaks and strength of schedule at this pivotal time of the year?

[Rocketman9]

Well, at this point, I would say you have to go with your gut. Winners, point scorers, etc are too tough to predict when playoff spots are on the line. My advice is you do what you think will give you the best chance to win. I don't really look at strength of schedule, I look more at how many games, and I usually go for the skilled guys unless he is really stinking it up.

[Mike]

I think the talented players will find ways to score no matter the opponent. In that case, I tend to lean toward players who get more games played down the stretch to maximize their chances at goals, assists, etc.

[Rocketman9]

I think the talented players will find ways to score no matter the opponent. In that case, I tend to lean toward players who get more games played down the stretch to maximize their chances at goals, assists, etc.

Exactly, that is how I set my team up for the championship, all of my players but 1 have 4 games (Thanks LWL!). My opponent is not happy about it.

[jomo666]

Thanks for the responses, guys. Taking all that into consideration, how do you guys feel about Matt Cooke? Obviously, if he stays on a line with Crosby, he should keep up his recent pace, as the Pens have been burning everyone lately. He'd also give me an extra game as long as he stays healthy.

This seems like the safest bet, but I'm really not that familiar with Radulov's play other than through the hype surrounding his return. The only downside I can think of is a lack of special teams play from Cooke, and the fact that his TOI should even out with Radulov's over the course of the extra game he'd play. Would either of you avoid this transaction for any reason I'm not thinking of?

I'm also thinking of dropping Vanek, which is tough as a Sabres fan, but I've watched him play lately, and I'm 95% sure he's playing injured. He's also down to about 16 minutes a night; not good for a $7 million+ man.

[Rocketman9]

The only reason would be to pick someone better. Like I said, check for Tyler Kennedy, he is on that line and seems to be rejuvenated. Pitt has 4 games this week and this could benefit you.

[jomo666]

The only knock I have on Kennedy is that points, PIMs, and blocks are the main basis of scoring in my league, and I'm not sure I can warrant playing him based on his recent track record. Let me know if I'm totally crazy saying something like that about him.

Also, if you take the higher numbers in his ATOI recently (we'll call it 13:30, even though he's been playing slightly less lately) over those last 7 games of the season, that's 94:30 total TOI, versus the lower part of Radulov's ATOI, (we'll say 18:00, even though he's been playing slightly more, despite the small 3 game sample size) that's still 108:00 projected TOI over his last 6 games. Based on the theory of it being better to have more opportunity to put up points, I'd say that greater TOI would trump more actual games played. Cooke comes closer to Radulov's projected time with a slightly better ATOI over the last several games.

I think the risk in losing that much TOI would be too great in this case for Kennedy to be a consideration. Critique of that thought process is MORE than welcome, though!

[jomo666]

After all that, I decided to go with Havlat. He's known to have the skill, is playing on a good line, getting good minutes, and I still get the extra game out of him. Not even considering that the Sharks need to be at their best as they're still very much in the race. Overall, I think this makes the most sense. Thanks for the input guys, it definitely helped me figure this one out in my head.

[Rocketman9]

Good pickup. He would have been my recommendation especially since he is playing with Couture and Clowe.