Trading Duchene ?

[flubber]

Pre draft trading for my tigers team . We keep 8 ( see sig for rest of team and stats ). I was actually more thinking about trying to parley Anderson into a skater but I received an offer for Duchene.

The offer was either Kessler or moulsen plus Enstrom for Duchene. I think it's a decline as i still see Duchene As being a potential superstar. I like both Kessler or moulsen just fine but not as much as Duchene and frankly the Enstrom throw in is just a nothing really. I like his potential but he isn't a keeper for me and looking around, he isn't a keeper for pretty much anyone. Even if he could be a keeper for someone it's likely the best I could get would be a minimal draft pick upgrade since anyone looking could see he is not a keeper for me.

So what are peoples thoughts on this trade? More generally what are the views on Duchene?

[Rocketman9]

I am torn on this guy as he burned me bad last year. Great deal of potential which would lead me to still hold on to him. Agree with you on Enstrom as well. Upside is too great for this guy. Don't do it.

[Cliffy4]

I wouldn't write it off so fast.

Kesler isn't a 40 goal scorer, but neither is Duchene. A lot of Duchene's problems came from not having adequate players on his line and being injured, but in that scoring, Kesler will put up PIMs, will have a better +/-, and plays all three facets, whereas Duchene doesn't play the PK (so you're taking an auto zero in that category).

Enstrom is a throw in? Wanna know the 2 defencemen that had 50+ points in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011? Dan Boyle and Enstrom. He was hurt last year which led to the downturn in his production. He's also only 27, or coming into his prime as a defenceman.

If the season were starting in 2 weeks, I would hesitate. But it's not, so I would take it. I think you're exchanging two guys of equal value, and you're getting one of the most consistent offensive D-men in the NHL.

[flubber]

I wouldn't write it off so fast.

Kesler isn't a 40 goal scorer, but neither is Duchene. A lot of Duchene's problems came from not having adequate players on his line and being injured, but in that scoring, Kesler will put up PIMs, will have a better +/-, and plays all three facets, whereas Duchene doesn't play the PK (so you're taking an auto zero in that category).

Enstrom is a throw in? Wanna know the 2 defencemen that had 50+ points in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011? Dan Boyle and Enstrom. He was hurt last year which led to the downturn in his production. He's also only 27, or coming into his prime as a defenceman.

If the season were starting in 2 weeks, I would hesitate. But it's not, so I would take it. I think you're exchanging two guys of equal value, and you're getting one of the most consistent offensive D-men in the NHL.

Good analysis--an te longer the season start delays, the better Kesler looks.

But we keep 8

Goalies are gold in a 14 team league so I keep Lundy, Rask and Anderson
Then I have Crosby Pavelski, S Weber and Pietrangelo

thats my 7 -- so who would you drop to keep enstrom ?-- this is why he can do a 2 for 1-- because pre-draft its not really Enstrom and Kesler for Duchene because you have to factor in the player I have to drop, an that player would have to come from the above list

So.. I liked your analysis but did not really change my view.. I still think Duchene has the potential to be a superstar


Edit-- note that I would likely TAKE this deal if it were offered AFTER our draft-- then the playr I would be dropping would be some 25th rounder

[Flames89Champs]

Well, I just traded for Duchene.. I gave up Patrick Kane for Duchene and a first round draft pick.. 5th overall... which I intend to pick defenseman Justin Schultz who is lighting it up in the AHL right now and is the AHL leading point getter right now with 12pts in 7 games.

[Rocketman9]

Well, I just traded for Duchene.. I gave up Patrick Kane for Duchene and a first round draft pick.. 5th overall... which I intend to pick defenseman Justin Schultz who is lighting it up in the AHL right now and is the AHL leading point getter right now with 12pts in 7 games.

Schultz is in beast mode right now. I hope he is the real deal.

[flubber]

Well, I just traded for Duchene.. I gave up Patrick Kane for Duchene and a first round draft pick.. 5th overall... which I intend to pick defenseman Justin Schultz who is lighting it up in the AHL right now and is the AHL leading point getter right now with 12pts in 7 games.

How many players do you keep?? Kane is another guy I have slated for a big rebound

[internalprime8]

Maybe Mike can do an article sometime of how a player's AHL success translates to the NHL if there is data available to support any meaningful conclusions.

[Mike]

Maybe Mike can do an article sometime of how a player's AHL success translates to the NHL if there is data available to support any meaningful conclusions.

This data does exist. The current models peg the translation (AHL --> NHL) at about 0.45. That is, on average, if a player is scoring X points per game at the AHL level, then his expected points per game the following season in the NHL is 0.45*X. Note that this data analysis was done for complete seasons of play.

Source: http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_...ivalencies.pdf

[Flames89Champs]

How many players do you keep?? Kane is another guy I have slated for a big rebound

We keep all players.. so there is no limit. Up to you whether you want to dish them away at the yearly draft or not. The league is as close as the real deal as you can get I would say... yearly entry fee... with a trophy engraved with winning team name and 100% payout to the winner at the end of year... 2nd gets his entry money back.