Thoughts on Mike Smith?

[the_shizzle1]

I have Crosby, Ovi, Lund, Seguin as keepers and contemplating keeping Mike Smith also (Other potential keepers: Brad Richards, Zetterberg, Spezza, Byfuglien)

What are people's thoughts about him being able to keep up with last years stats?

Thanks for the help.

[internalprime8]

I don't think he'll put up quite the same numbers he did last year but he could very well remain in the .920 range for a save percentage with similar GAA as last year given Phoenix's system and the coaching of Tippett. His wins might go down a little with Whitney leaving but they seem to adjust fairly well every year so I don't think he'll get much less. Doan is still there and Boedker and Hanzal are getting better.

How big is your league though? You could probably pick Smith back up in the draft and keep someone like Richards or Byfuglien who would likely get picked off earlier.

[Mike]

I have Crosby, Ovi, Lund, Seguin as keepers and contemplating keeping Mike Smith also (Other potential keepers: Brad Richards, Zetterberg, Spezza, Byfuglien)

What are people's thoughts about him being able to keep up with last years stats?

Thanks for the help.

This one is a tough call and will likely make or break a few drafts.

Smith posted a .930 SV% last season. By our calculations, he was the recipient of a +0.004 PK Boost (read about that here: http://www.leftwinglock.com/articles...-the-pk-boost/), so his 'trustable' SV% from last season was about .926.

Up until last season, Smith had posted a career .906 SV%. That total is a reflection of 68% of the total shots he has faced in his career. For the remaining 32% (all of last season), Smith posted the .930.

Although Smith is 30 years old, he's played the equivalent of just under four seasons (if you consider 60 GP as an indicator of a full season for a goalie). What does this mean? It means there really isn't enough data on Smith for anyone to know his talent level with great accuracy.

We've projected Smith to be a .914 in the upcoming season. That probably seems low in light of his numbers from last year, but when compared to his career body of work, it is a not-so-unreasonable number.

[Flames89Champs]

I don't think Mike Smith will have a year like that again. He will have decent numbers though.

[hockeyguy]

Smith will put up decent individual numbers but Phoenix is going to be terrible this season so I don't know how many wins you will get.

[Cliffy4]

This one is a tough call and will likely make or break a few drafts.

Smith posted a .930 SV% last season. By our calculations, he was the recipient of a +0.004 PK Boost (read about that here: http://www.leftwinglock.com/articles...-the-pk-boost/), so his 'trustable' SV% from last season was about .926.

Up until last season, Smith had posted a career .906 SV%. That total is a reflection of 68% of the total shots he has faced in his career. For the remaining 32% (all of last season), Smith posted the .930.

Although Smith is 30 years old, he's played the equivalent of just under four seasons (if you consider 60 GP as an indicator of a full season for a goalie). What does this mean? It means there really isn't enough data on Smith for anyone to know his talent level with great accuracy.

We've projected Smith to be a .914 in the upcoming season. That probably seems low in light of his numbers from last year, but when compared to his career body of work, it is a not-so-unreasonable number.

.914 sounds about right. I'm not nearly as high on Smith as others are. In fact, because there's so much unknown, I'm staying away from him whenever I can.