Jakub Voracek

[Leafs]

I've heard he'll play on the top line this season (If there is one). How do we think he'll do compared to other RWs? From Perry? St. Louis? Iginla? Backes? Lupul (he has RW eligibility)? Or no where near any of these guys. Obviously it's speculation but I'm curious about others' opinions on this.

[hockeyguy]

If Voracek plays on the top line with Giroux, I don't think with his talent level it's unrealistic to expect a 30-30-60 season. If they find good chemistry, it could go as high as 35-35-70.

[Mike]

30 goals would be a huge leap for Voracek. His career SH% sits at 9.1% and he's never shot the puck more than 190 times in a season. Let's construct a couple scenarios in which he could reach 30 goals:

1. 250 SOG and 12% SH% - this requires Voracek to jump 50% above his career SH% and boost his SOG by 31%.

2. 200 SOG and 15% SH% - those SOG numbers are very reasonable, but the SH% boost would be a huge leap (65% better than career)

As a reference for SOG rates for that top line, take a look at Jagr. During Jagr's time on that top line, he produced 2.33 SOG per game which yields a total of about 190 over an 82 game season.

I'd be fairly surprised by a 30 goal season by Voracek. There are scenarios under which it could happen, but as you see above, they would require Voracek to play rather un-Voracek-like for 82 games.

[hockeyguy]

This is where, in my opinion, using stats only can seriously hinder a player's projections. All of the figures above you use are very useful and make for excellent points. However, all of those numbers have to have an asterik by them as he's never played with a player of the caliber of Claude Giroux. That type of situation is something you can't quantify with stats.

However, if we want to stick with a purely statistical analysis...

Voracek was on the ice for 1,271 minutes with ATOI of 16:17 per game. Giroux averaged over 21 minutes per game last year so let's give Voracek an even 20 minutes per game this year (I'll grant, this may be a stretch). He's played between 78-81 games every season of his career. Let's give him 80 games. That's 1,600 minutes over the course of the season.

Last year he shot the puck 190 times. That's a shot every 6.7 minutes of ice time. If we extrapolate that over the TOI he should get this year, that's approximately 240 shots this year. With a 9.1% shooting percentage, that's approximately 22 goals. However, playing with a playmaker like Giroux can do nothing but increase your shooting percentage. Hartnell and Jagr both had higher S% than their previous two years.

As I said earlier, a lot of my projection on Voracek has to do with reasons that aren't quantifiable (i.e. he'll get better shots with Giroux and his S% will increase, Hartnell can't have as good of a season and goals are going to come from somewhere, etc.). I'll maybe modify my projections to something along the lines of 28-32-60. However, having said all that, and certainly not to discredit anything you're saying, I don't think it's that far of a stretch at all to see Voracek scoring 30 goals.

[Mike]

I like the addition of your TOI analysis and think it is useful. You make a strong argument for an increase in SOG for Voracek. I agree that Voracek's TOI will increase. But, most or all of that will happen at even-strength since Voracek was on the top PP unit last season already:

http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...gametype=ALL#A

So 190 is probably too low and 240 is probably too high.

There are some people who have tried to analyze the effect that linemates can have on a player's shooting percentage. It is a very tempting narrative to believe that playing with great players makes you a better player. Qualitatively, the argument sounds great, but the quantitative results come up a little short:

Top-end playmakers can boost their teammates' shooting percentage by something like 1%, good for an extra 5 goals or so per year.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/17/quan...ing-percentage

If we agree that Giroux is a top-end playmaker (and I do), then Voracek should experience a bump to around 10.1%. If we slot him in for 230 SOG, we'd be looking at 23 goals.

Of course, Voracek could experience one of those anomalous SH% seasons that we discuss in the draft kit. But, to me, that gets out of the realm of projections and into the realm of wishful thinking.

[hockeyguy]

That's an interesting link. I'll have to dig through that a little more when I have more convenience. At what point though, Mike, when making projections, do we start taking into account a player "coming into his own". I know we like the Fourth Year rule of thumb and this is Voracek's fifth. I'd argue some of his time in Columbus was a total waste but that's not the point. I happen to believe a player of Voracek's talent just needs the right TOI and linemate to flourish and start getting the numbers the player of his draft position should hit.

Obviously, that's another factor which can't be quantified; however, it should come into play right?

I guess what we'll have to do is keep this thread in mind and on hold for the end of the year. I'd be stunned if he scores less than 25 goals (weighted for a shortened season) and I'll eat all the crow provided if I'm wrong

[Mike]

I don't think there will be any crow served up here. I love these kinds of discussions and they force me (and hopefully everyone reading) to evaluate their positions on these topics and think harder about to truly forecast a player's output. My only regret here is that more people haven't chimed in yet!

I took a quick look at the top goal scorers from last season. One thing that jumped out at me was this: of all the players who scored 30 or more goals, only four of them took less than 215 SOG and only four of them had less than 11% SH%.

What would be fun to look at is the stats leading up to and including the break-out years for younger players. For example, Evander Kane. He went from 14 G to 19 G to 30 G over a span of three seasons. His SOG went from 127 to 234 to 287. His SH% was 11%, 8.1%, and 10.5%. Strangely, his TOI in his 3rd season was actually less than his TOI in his 2nd season (I was hoping the TOI would account for the SOG increase).

It might be asking too much that we find a smoking gun for break-out players. One thing is for sure; there are only two ways to experience a break-out season:

1. Significantly increase your SOG.
2. Significantly increase your SH%.

Of course, doing both would get you there too. The only one of those two options that I believe a player/team has significant control over is the former (SOG).