When to draft a goalie?

[jal179]

Further context

I don't know what the average league size is so I don't know what the average chance to win is... But in a 12 team league if everyone selected their teams completely randomly your chance to win would be 8.3 percent.

Mike rand the numbers and provided me with the chance of winning if you select in the first round

A goalie.. 13.2 percent
A centre 7.2 percent
RW. 6.7 percent
LW. 6.2 percent
Defense 1.9 percent

Pretty strong numbers


Whatit confirms is that people that picked a goalie in the 1st ( usually one of the uber elites)has done statistically better than people that picked an uber elite forward.

It also appears that there have been pretty few leagues where picking a defencemen has worked out

That is the most fantastic breakdown I've seen in some time. I'm not smart enough to pick your arguent apart, so I'm going tender first round unless I've got a top 4 pick (Syd, Geno, Stammer, Giroux)

[Tim]

This tells me that 66% of winning teams did NOT take a goalie first round.

Me I've had problem with early goalie the last few years, and as a result my scoring has been atrocious. There are only so many elite scorers out there. If there's a ppg skater out there I'm taking them as long as they're on the board. IMO there are good goalies in the middle rounds, steals late, and every year there are waiver wire wonders.

I would like to target Niemi later, say around 6th. Would like to wait until 7th but IMO he's gone there in my league.

Correct. But to interpret the stat ican provide some context provided by mike to me when I inquired further on this by pm.

20.2 percent of all teams select a goalie in the first round
34 percent of WINNING teams select a goalie in the first round.

So statistically selecting a goalie in the first round seems to have a apparent correlation with winning. When 79.8 percent of first round selection are NOTgoalies that 66 percent win rate seems far less impressive.

I don't know about everyone else but I had a really hard time getting this through my head lol. What Swyck said made more sense to me but after a lot of thinking I see the advantage now.

It may look like an advantage if you don't take a goalie first since 66% is higher than 34% but of course it's going to be since only 2 or 3 goalies are generally taken in the first round. So their are 7 or 8 teams who went forward/dman first and 2 or 3 teams who went goalie first. With at least twice as many teams, of course it's more likely the winner is one of those who went forward/dman. But when you look at each team's individual percentages, it shows the advantage to taking a goalie first.

In a ten team league, 20.2% taking a goalie first is almost exactly 2 teams. So each of those two teams have a 17% chance of winning (taking the 34% of teams drafted a goalie first won and dividing it by the two teams). That leaves a 66% chance of another team winning, which comes out to 8.25% chance per team. So 17% chance of winning while taking a goalie first compared to 8.25% by taking a forward/dman first by last year's results. So basically, by taking a goalie in the first round last year, you have twice the chance of winning.

Those are last year's numbers so I wouldn't expect them to be exactly the same for this year, but that being said they shouldn't be that much different. I know who I'm drafting first from now on.

[flubber]

Those are last year's numbers so I wouldn't expect them to be exactly the same for this year, but that being said they shouldn't be that much different. I know who I'm drafting first from now on.

Your example works but I would not go so far as to say that this means one must take a goalie in the first round or that a goalie should absolutely be the first pick. You still have to consider your particular draft. If your league has 4 goalie categories and 12 for skaters your Assessment might be different than if it is 7 and 5.

Or it could be a 12 team league and you are drafting 9th... If the first 8 drafters took goalies would you not obviously be better to take a forward and then pick a Goalie at pick 15?

Also I wonder if this concept got traction and suddenly the ratio of teams picking Goalies in the first round went up to half...would the ratio of wining teams picking goalies go up markedly or just a little More teams picking goalies in the first should increase goalie wins some ( so maybe more than 34 percent of winning teams pick a goalie first)BUT the fact that some of the goalies that would then be selected would be not as good could mean the 13.2 percent number above goes down. To use the 12 team league example if things changed such that 6 managers always chose goalies and a Goalie led team won half the time you would see the chance of winning if you selected a goalie drop to 8.3 percent even though half of winning teams selected a goalie.

Stats are fun hey ?

So the general stats are great but they are just that... General stats... It's led me to be much stronger on getting a goalie early but it's not a always or an absolute

[Tim]

Your example works but I would not go so far as to say that this means one must take a goalie in the first round or that a goalie should absolutely be the first pick. You still have to consider your particular draft. If your league has 4 goalie categories and 12 for skaters your Assessment might be different than if it is 7 and 5.

Or it could be a 12 team league and you are drafting 9th... If the first 8 drafters took goalies would you not obviously be better to take a forward and then pick a Goalie at pick 15?

Also I wonder if this concept got traction and suddenly the ratio of teams picking Goalies in the first round went up to half...would the ratio of wining teams picking goalies go up markedly or just a little More teams picking goalies in the first should increase goalie wins some ( so maybe more than 34 percent of winning teams pick a goalie first)BUT the fact that some of the goalies that would then be selected would be not as good could mean the 13.2 percent number above goes down. To use the 12 team league example if things changed such that 6 managers always chose goalies and a Goalie led team won half the time you would see the chance of winning if you selected a goalie drop to 8.3 percent even though half of winning teams selected a goalie.

Stats are fun hey ?

So the general stats are great but they are just that... General stats... It's led me to be much stronger on getting a goalie early but it's not a always or an absolute

Oh absolutely. The situation is always important. Stats can never tell the whole story. But based off of these stats and my leagues' stats (at least 30% in all of my leagues are goalie stats, most more than that) going goalie first would normally make sense. There's almost always a top 3 goalie available in the first round unless it's like the last pick.

[Spacemoose]

Your example works but I would not go so far as to say that this means one must take a goalie in the first round or that a goalie should absolutely be the first pick. You still have to consider your particular draft. If your league has 4 goalie categories and 12 for skaters your Assessment might be different than if it is 7 and 5.

Or it could be a 12 team league and you are drafting 9th... If the first 8 drafters took goalies would you not obviously be better to take a forward and then pick a Goalie at pick 15?

Also I wonder if this concept got traction and suddenly the ratio of teams picking Goalies in the first round went up to half...would the ratio of wining teams picking goalies go up markedly or just a little More teams picking goalies in the first should increase goalie wins some ( so maybe more than 34 percent of winning teams pick a goalie first)BUT the fact that some of the goalies that would then be selected would be not as good could mean the 13.2 percent number above goes down. To use the 12 team league example if things changed such that 6 managers always chose goalies and a Goalie led team won half the time you would see the chance of winning if you selected a goalie drop to 8.3 percent even though half of winning teams selected a goalie.

Stats are fun hey ?

So the general stats are great but they are just that... General stats... It's led me to be much stronger on getting a goalie early but it's not a always or an absolute

Funny because this was exactly my situation in my second draft (9th pick of 12) and I was going to go goalie but didn't since I knew the drafting style of the players behind me and knew my goalie would still be there. Also got Niemi late (6th or 7th round) which helped a lot. Many people told me after the draft I took him way too early, which boggles my mind. I was able to take him in the 10th round of a 13 player pool in a roto league though...

only 1 goalie was off the board when I got to my 9th pick ,and 2 off the board when I got to my second round pick with rask.

[Tim]

Funny because this was exactly my situation in my second draft (9th pick of 12) and I was going to go goalie but didn't since I knew the drafting style of the players behind me and knew my goalie would still be there. Also got Niemi late (6th or 7th round) which helped a lot. Many people told me after the draft I took him way too early, which boggles my mind. I was able to take him in the 10th round of a 13 player pool in a roto league though...

only 1 goalie was off the board when I got to my 9th pick ,and 2 off the board when I got to my second round pick with rask.

I would've went with Quick/Lundqvist (whichever one was left), but if you knew the draft strategy then I can see going with a forward. This is what I'm talking about when I say stats never tell the whole story

[flubber]

Many people told me after the draft I took him way too early, which boggles my mind. I was able to take him in the 10th round of a 13 player pool in a roto league though...

.

Picks after the obvious ones only come in two flavors

1. I wonder did I pick him too early?
2. Dang I am too late

"many people" may tell you that you are too early but if one other manager was planning to take him, then you weren't early at all were you?

only 1 goalie was off the board when I got to my 9th pick ,and 2 off the board when I got to my second round pick with rask.

All my drafts had 3 goalies or more gone in round 1.

Which of Rinne, Lundy or Quiick was still around when you took Rask? I am not saying you were wrong on peformance ability. I just usually put Rask behind those three on the lack of proven durability. I think if healthy he will be amazing

[Spacemoose]

Picks after the obvious ones only come in two flavors

1. I wonder did I pick him too early?
2. Dang I am too late

"many people" may tell you that you are too early but if one other manager was planning to take him, then you weren't early at all were you?




All my drafts had 3 goalies or more gone in round 1.

Which of Rinne, Lundy or Quiick was still around when you took Rask? I am not saying you were wrong on peformance ability. I just usually put Rask behind those three on the lack of proven durability. I think if healthy he will be amazing

Due to an amusing situation, a guy accidently auto-drafted Rinne (he went to make a sandwich because he didn't realize it was a snake draft) so rinne and lundy were off the table. Lundy went 6th overall. I went rask over quick, which maybe wasn't the right call but I had him rated higher in my format. It was close though.

[flubber]

I would've went with Quick/Lundqvist (whichever one was left), but if you knew the draft strategy then I can see going with a forward. This is what I'm talking about when I say stats never tell the whole story

Ditto-- To get one of those 2 9th would be a steal on my leagues with their stat mixes-- Neither fell past 6th